MSV Podcast

Roundtable: “Where Are We in the Market Cycle?”

March 15, 2023 Morningstar Ventures Season 1 Episode 5
MSV Podcast
Roundtable: “Where Are We in the Market Cycle?”
Show Notes


Top 5 Key Takeaways:

1. Despite external factors, Bitcoin is following its 4-year halving cycle
The conversation starts by asking our guests where we are in the market cycle and what we expect to see in the future. Scott starts the conversation by saying we aren't seeing anything too different, despite correlations or external factors. He refers to the 4-year halving cycle charts and says Bitcoin follows the path/trend it has always been on. According to the chart, it makes sense that there was a bottom in November, December, and January, and now leading up to May 2024, Bitcoin is setting itself up for a rampant move to the upside. He states that if we look back at this in a couple of years, many will see it as a regular Bitcoin retract cycle. 

2. Bitcoin following the equity and stock market is a false narrative

The conversation continues to understand if there is a correlation between the stock market and Bitcoin. All speakers agree that though there have been correlations between the way the stock market moves to Bitcoin, there is currently no correlation between the two - essentially arguing that it's a bit of a false narrative.

3. Products created in this next cycle need to help people in the ecosystem with real-life use cases
Moving away from the topic of market conditions, the conversation focused more on the project, founder, and product end of the market. As we had both Chainflip and Bware Labs founders on the call, and Scott, who understands the community, we were curious to hear how launching a product in the current market has been and what they want to see in the future from project founders. Both Flavian and Simon agreed that it would be an exciting time, especially as the last couple of months have been challenging to launch products due to the lack of capital and getting interest from the general public. 

4. Important to create crypto products and crypto content that is easy to understand

Flavian and Scott dive deeper into the accessibility of products. They both agree that the best way to mainstream adoption is abstracting the complexity that comes with crypto. For example, the vernacular and usability need to be simpler for average users. In the future, users shouldn't be aware that they are using Web3 products and should just be using a product that solves their everyday needs. Moreover, Scott and Simon touched upon the topic of stablecoins in the market. Despite market conditions, they mentioned that many people use stablecoins instead of bank accounts. These products have become more popular as they are instrumental and understandable developments in the ecosystem.

5. There is an opportunity for banks who want to do business with "us" (crypto)

To round off the conversation, we asked our guests what the future of banks will look like and what needs to happen for more crypto adoption from the traditional financial sector. Scott starts the conversation and says we already see the early signs of adoption from trad-fi. In the past years, there has been a crisis of confidence in the crypto space, but now we are seeing that shift in this crisis towards the banking system. This phenomenon is opening up people's eyes as there are realizing banks are not the place where everything is safe. However, this doesn't mean that banks are going anywhere.